The past year has been wild in the world of tech, bringing us TikTok bans, the Silicon Valley Bank collapse, and a never-ending cycle of drama at OpenAI. Will things slow down in 2024, or or continue at the same breakneck pace?
We asked the experts in a number of fields about their best predictions on how the coming year will shake out.
The past year has been wild in the world of tech, bringing us TikTok bans, the Silicon Valley Bank collapse, and a never-ending cycle of drama at OpenAI. Will things slow down in 2024, or or continue at the same breakneck pace?
We asked the experts in a number of fields about their best predictions on how the coming year will shake out.
THE AI WORLD IS DUE FOR MORE CHAOS
Margaret Mitchell of AI company Hugging Face believes that 2024 will see “at least one influential [AI] model” fade out of relevance—with an impact on the corresponding data.” Mitchell also reckons that the AI hype that has carried us through 2023 will subside somewhat as folks begin to realize that the tech doesn’t always offer a solution for our problems. “I’d guess as a backlash against generative AI hype [for use] in fact-based applications, such as in medicine and law,” she says.
At the same time, Mitchell believes 2024 will see the rise of task-specific models (rather than generalizable ones) and increased competition in the graphics processing unit sector to meet AI’s demand.
Worryingly, she also says that we should be alert to the risks of AI to scam us all through voice, language, and images—particularly older people, for whom the maxim “Seeing is believing” still rings true.
ELECTIONS WILL BE MEDDLED WITH
It’s important that we all keep our eyes open to the risks of tech-based manipulations in 2024, suggests Chris Hankin, professor at the U.K.’s Institute for Security Science and Technology at Imperial College London. “The year 2024 will be an important year for ‘democracy’ in both Europe and the U.S., with the electorate in 27 European Union countries voting in the European Parliament elections in June, the U.S. Presidential election in November, and a parliamentary election in the U.K.”
Policing bad behavior is likely to be a massive headache. “Ahead of all of these elections, the detection and prevention of misinformation and disinformation and the cybersecurity of the ballot process are likely to be major technological challenges in 2024,” he says.
CREATOR-LED BRANDS WILL CONTINUE APACE
From Kim Kardashian’s Skims shapewear to Logan Paul’s Prime drinks, creators have in recent years demonstrated their clout in the world of commerce. And social media expert Matt Navarra believes that’ll continue into 2024. “It’ll be led by big name TikTok and YouTube stars,” he says. “We’ll see brands try to collaborate with them, and almost be secondary to the creator in terms of developing these products and services.”
COMPANIES WILL CONTINUE TO PULL ADS FROM X
The fall of X (formerly Twitter) was the story of 2023, and things will only get worse in 2024, Navarra suggests. Many big brands have pulled their advertising dollars from X but those who remain will retreat in the coming 12 months. “We’ll probably see another year of the same: More controversial tweets, more brands pulling back from using the platform or for advertising on the platform,” Navarra says.
Navarra also believes that regulators will continue to bear down on Musk’s unapologetic disregard for certain moderation safeguards. (Sure enough, this month the E.U. launched its own threat of action against X.) “X is in its sights, and is prime target number one for them to be able to demonstrate that it has got a bite, and regulation does work,” he says. “I suspect we might see them as the first target for enforcement of some of those new regulatory powers.”
THREADS WILL GET FOLDED INTO INSTAGRAM
That bold prediction comes from creator economy entrepreneur Brendan Gahan. It might sound surprising, but would be in keeping with the past, he says. “Meta’s Threads usage is waning. This is despite the launch of new features and a web rollout. To save it, they’ll have to integrate it into Instagram,” he explains.
You only need to look at Meta’s past playbook for that. “There hasn’t been a single stand-alone app that Meta has launched that has managed to survive,” he says. “They’ve tried on multiple occasions. They launched stand-alone TikTok , Snap, and YouTube competitors. None has lasted, but these features have been integrated into Instagram.” The same will hold true here, he believes.
CYBERCRIME WILL TURN MORE CARTEL-LIKE
“Cybersecurity will continue to be a top risk for organizations in 2024,” warns Jody Westby, CEO of Global Cyber Risk. “The use of generative AI and deepfakes in targeted phishing attacks, AI-generated malware, and automated attacks will present significant challenges to organizations.”
What had become a major issue for organizations will turn into an epidemic of sizable proportions. What’s more, it won’t necessarily be state-sponsored groups wreaking the most havoc. The increasing professionalization of cybercriminals will continue apace in the coming year. “Cartel-like behavior from cooperating cybercriminals will increase in 2024 and the layers of players in these attacks will limit the leverage companies have in negotiating ransoms or other outcomes and managing communications about the incident,” she says.
THE METAVERSE WILL WORK—BUT IT WON’T FOLLOW MARK ZUCKERBERG’S VISION
The success of the metaverse was so obvious to Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg that he renamed his entire company to reflect its importance back in 2021. Yet in 2022 and 2023, the metaverse didn’t end up revolutionizing our lives. Things could change in 2024, says Irena Cronin, CEO of tech consultancy Infinite Retina.
“A metaverse 2.0 will be in full swing,” she says. “And it’ll have nothing to do with the Zuckerberg idea of the metaverse.” Zuckerberg’s idea was that we’d be constantly plugged into a Meta-built headset, gaming within a world that his company built, she says. Apple’s Vision Pro, the $3,500 headset first announced back in July 2023, could “potentially be bigger than the iPhone because it replaces the way we know computing,” she says.
